Beginning of the Iran-Israel Conflict 1947 to 2024
The ongoing Iran-Israel conflict is also known as the Iran-Israel proxy war or the Iran-Israel Cold War. Iran has supported Lebanese Shiite militias, particularly Hezbollah, in the Israeli-Lebanese conflict. Iran has supported Palestinian groups such as Hamas in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israel has supported Iranian rebels, such as the People’s Mujahideen of Iran, carried out airstrikes against Iran’s allies in Syria, and killed Iranian nuclear scientists. In 2018, Israeli forces directly attacked Iranian forces in Syria.
On 13 April 2024, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in coordination with the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, the Lebanese group Hezbollah, and the Yemeni Houthis launched an offensive against Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. This operation was codenamed ‘Operation True Promise’ or ‘Operation True Promise’ in English. Drones, cruise, and ballistic missiles are used in these attacks. The retaliation attack began in response to an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus on April 1, killing 16 people. The retaliatory strike was the first direct military confrontation between the two countries since the start of the Iran-Israel proxy war.
Background of the Iran-Israel conflict:
On October 7, 2023, Iran-backed Hamas launched an attack in southern Israel, killing 1,200 people. Israel responded by launching an ongoing Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip. According to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, more than 33,000 people have died so far. Meanwhile, Iran has accused Israel of committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza.
After October 7, Lebanon’s Iran-backed proxy Hezbollah launched an attack on northern Israel. More than 4,400 violent incidents between Hezbollah and Israel have been recorded since the start of the war, and nearly 100,000 Israelis have been evacuated from northern Israel since the start of the conflict.
On April 1, 2024, the Iranian Consulate Annex building adjacent to the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, Syria was hit by an Israeli airstrike. It killed 16 people, including Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior Quds Force commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and 7 other IRGC officers.
Immediately after the attack, Iran vowed to retaliate. Originally it was mentioned as a possible target for airstrikes. Iran claims the building was part of the embassy compound, while Israel claims it was a building used by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and was located outside the embassy’s fenced compound. Numerous countries and international organizations condemned the attack. The United States has denied involvement or knowledge.
In the weeks leading up to the attack, the United States, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom all warned Iran against attacking Israel, saying such an attack would be prolonged and could lead to a Western military response against Iran. Iran was warned by Israel that such an attack could lead to a direct Israeli military response on Iranian soil. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Kuwait have said they have taken steps to prevent the United States from using bases on their territory for possible strikes against Iran. In early April 2024, Iran threatened to attack US military bases if the US intervened to defend Israel.
How hostilities between Israel and Iran began:
Relations between Israel and Iran were cordial until 1979. But this relationship soured when the Ayatollah seized power in Tehran through the so-called Islamic Revolution. Even though it initially opposed the partition of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel in 1948, Iran was the second Muslim country after Egypt to recognize Israel.
At the time, Iran was a monarchy ruled by the Shahs of the Pahlavi dynasty and one of the United States’ main allies in the Middle East. For this reason, Israel’s founder and first Prime Minister, David Ben-Gurion, sought and achieved friendship with Iran as a way to counter the rejection of the new Jewish state by its Arab neighbors.
But the situation changed completely in 1979 when the Ruhullah Khomeini revolution overthrew the Shah and imposed the Islamic Republic on Iran. One of the main features of this new government’s identity was its rejection of the ‘imperialism’ of the United States and its ally Israel. The new Ayatollah’s government severed ties with Israel, denied the validity of Israeli citizens’ passports, and seized the Israeli embassy in Tehran, handing it over to the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). At the time, the PLO was leading the fight against the Israeli government and the establishment of a Palestinian state.
“Hostility toward Israel was a pillar of the new Iranian regime because many of its leaders participated in and trained in guerrilla warfare with, and sympathized with, the Palestinians in places like Lebanon,” said Ali Vayez, director of the Iran program at the International Crisis Group, a non-governmental organization on conflict resolution. The new Iran also wanted to present itself as a pan-Islamic power. And so it brought up the issue of Palestine against Israel, because other Arab Muslim countries had already dropped it.
This is how Khomeini began to claim Palestine as his own and pro-Palestinian protests became normal with his own and Tehran’s government support. However, Israel’s hostility towards Iran did not begin until the 1990s. Because before that, Saddam Hussein’s Iraq was considered a bigger regional threat. Even the Israeli government was one of the mediators in making the secret program known as ‘Iran-Contra’ possible. In doing so, the United States transferred weapons to Iran that it used to wage war against neighboring Iraq from 1980 to 1988. But over time, Israel began to see Iran as one of the main threats to its existence, and conflict between the two countries began.
The ‘Shadow War’ between Israel and Iran
Faced with other major regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and aware of the reality of Iran’s Shiite predominance in the predominantly Sunni Arab Islamic world, the Iranian government realized its isolation and began to develop a strategy aimed at countering fears that the enemy would one day invade its own territory. Thus the network of organizations linked to Tehran expands and conducts military actions favorable to its interests. Notable among these is Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which the United States and the European Union have designated as a ‘terrorist’ group. Currently, this so-called Iranian ‘Axis of Resistance’ extends to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Meanwhile, Israel did not sit idly by. Rather, it has resisted attacks and other hostile acts by Iran and its allies. But often in a third country where Israel finances and supports armed groups fighting pro-Iranian forces. The conflict between Iran and Israel has been described as a ‘shadow war’ because both countries attacked each other. But in many cases, no one officially acknowledged it. In 1992, an Islamic jihadist group close to Iran blew up the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires. 29 people were killed in this. A few days ago, Hezbollah leader Abbas Al-Musawi was killed. Israel’s intelligence agency was blamed for the attack.
It has always been important for Israel to thwart Iran’s nuclear program, so that the Ayatollahs would never acquire a nuclear weapon. Israel has never believed Iran’s claims that it was being pursued solely for civilian purposes. It is even widely accepted that Israel, in cooperation with the United States, created the Stuxnet computer virus, which caused serious damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities in the first decade of the 2000s.
Tehran blames Israeli intelligence for the attack on some of the top scientists in charge of its nuclear program. The most notable of these was the killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, considered its most senior figure, in 2020. The Israeli government, however, has never admitted involvement in the deaths of Iranian scientists. Israel, along with its Western allies, has accused Iran of drone and rocket attacks on its territory in the past, as well as several cyber attacks.
The Syrian civil war that started in 2011 was another cause of conflict between the two countries. According to Western intelligence sources, Iran then sent money, weapons and trainers against rebels seeking to oust President Bashar al-Assad. This has raised alarm bells in Israel, which believes neighboring Syria is one of the Iranians’ main routes for supplying Hezbollah with equipment and weapons in Lebanon.
According to the US intelligence portal Stratfor, at various times both Israel and Iran have carried out operations in Syria aimed at preventing the other side from launching a large-scale attack. In 2021, this “shadow war” reached the sea. Israel blamed Iran for an attack on an Israeli ship in the Gulf of Oman that year. On the other hand, Iran accused Israel of attacking its ships in the Red Sea.
Hamas attack on Israel:
Following the October 7, 2023 attack by the Palestinian militia Hamas against Israel and the Israeli army’s response to a massive military operation in Gaza, analysts and heads of government around the world expressed concern that the conflict could trigger a chain reaction in the region and provoke open and direct conflict between Iranians and Israelis.
Clashes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah-affiliated militias along the Lebanese border have increased in recent months, as have clashes with Palestinian protesters in the occupied West Bank. Both Iran and Israel avoided escalating their hostilities into a full-scale war, but the situation changed after Tehran launched drones and missiles.
Iran-Israel war which country is on whose side?
Israel’s attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria and Iran’s drone and missile attacks on Israel in retaliation are seen by experts as a threat to a regional conflict. The bitter relationship between these two countries is gradually leading to a major military conflict. At the same time, US allies in the Middle East have become very divided.
Four US allies in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Kuwait, have warned the United States in advance of the possible situation of Iran’s attack on Israel. The countries said that they will not be allowed to use their territory to carry out any kind of attack on Iran. On the other hand, another Arab state, Jordan, has stepped in to counter Iranian drones and missiles on behalf of Israel.
The United States, United Kingdom and France are already supporting Israel in countering Iran’s attacks. Besides, Australia and Germany have announced to stand by Israel. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has called for restraint after Iran’s attack on Israel. Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry has expressed concern over “rising military tensions” in the region and called on all sides to exercise restraint to avoid the “danger of war”.
Nuclear superpower China has expressed deep concern about such an attack by Tehran. A spokesman for Beijing’s foreign ministry said China expressed deep concern over the ongoing tensions and called on the parties concerned to exercise calm and restraint to prevent large-scale conflict.
Meanwhile, Tel Aviv has not yet taken any decision on counter-attacks in response to this attack by Iran. According to a report by the Israeli media The Times of Israel, no decision has yet been made about Israel’s response to the Iranian missile and drone attacks after assessing the situation. However, a possible response will be discussed during the Wartime Cabinet meeting.
On the other hand, the US forces will not participate with Israel in counter-attacks on Iran, despite the promise of iron-clad support to Tel Aviv amid heightened tensions between Iran and Israel. They will not even support this Israeli attack.
Recent conflicts between Israel and Iran:
Tensions are rising in the Middle East. The distance of Isfahan province from Tehran, the capital of Iran, is three hundred and fifty kilometers. Iran’s nuclear facilities are located there. The province also has one of the largest military airfields in the country.
Iran attacked Israel with drones and missiles on the night of April 13, 2024. Iran’s state media reported this information, citing the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, a branch of the country’s armed forces. At that time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called an emergency meeting of his wartime cabinet. Israel decided to respond to Iran’s attack there.
This direct conflict between Iran and Israel began on April 1. Two senior military commanders were killed in an attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus that day. Iran has vowed revenge, blaming Israel for the attack. The retaliatory attack is essentially the latest episode in the two countries’ long-standing conflict.
Israel and Iran have been engaged in a bloody conflict for years. And its intensity sometimes increases, sometimes decreases depending on the geopolitical issues. This is one of the reasons for instability in the Middle East. To Tehran, Israel is the ‘little devil’ and the United States’ ally in the Middle East, which it calls the ‘big devil’.
Israel accuses Iran of financing “terrorist” groups and exploiting Jewish opposition to attack them. The conflict between the “two archenemies” has caused large numbers of casualties, often in secret, with no government claiming responsibility. The war in Gaza has made this situation worse.
On May 19, 2024, a helicopter crashed in Iran, killing the country’s President Ibrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Amiradollahian, and all on board. As Iran mourns the death of President Ibrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, the world is closely watching its aftermath and implications for the geopolitical equation. It is believed that this incident will increase the Iran-Israel conflict and increase the complexity.
Iran-Israel war can affect the world economy:
The Iran-Israel war has added a new dimension to the conflict in the Middle East. Analysts believe that the political impact of counter-attacks by the two countries will be far-reaching and the economic impact is also not small. When Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023, Israel went on a rampage in Palestine in retaliation.
In protest, Yemen’s Houthi rebels began attacking commercial ships sailing in the Red Sea. As a result, a new supply crisis is created in the world economy. Even in the existing situation, there is a risk that the cost of transporting goods by ship will increase. It has also affected the business of Bangladesh. Especially due to the conflict, the price of oil has increased in the international market. The effects of the Iran-Israel war on the world economy are discussed below:
- Fuel Oil Price:
The conflict between Iran and Israel has had the biggest impact on oil and gas. Experts believe that the final result of the conflict between the two countries may be the increase in the price of oil. As a result headline inflation may rise again. But so far, oil prices have not had such an impact. However, if Iran’s oil fields are attacked, the price of Brent crude oil will rise to $100 per barrel, and if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, it is feared to rise to $120 to $130.
- Gold Price:
Gold prices are already on the upswing. It is believed that if the uncertainty in the global economy increases, the attraction of people towards buying gold may increase. Because, during times of danger, people are attracted to gold as a medium known as ‘safe haven’ or ‘safe investment’. This is eternal truth. However, after Iran’s attack on Israel, the price of gold did not increase immediately. Gold prices rose 0.4 percent per ounce the day after the attack. So far the price of gold has increased by 0.29 percent.
- Stock Market and the Dollar:
On the one hand, the price of gold has increased due to the situation of war between Iran and Israel, on the other hand, the value of stock markets around the world has decreased. Inflation in the US has risen for three consecutive months, reducing the likelihood of a policy rate cut in the country. Share prices fell in almost all Asian countries. Fearing war, foreign investors have dumped shares worth over Rs 16,000 crore in the Indian market. In this situation, the price of the US dollar is increasing against various important currencies of the world.
- Investor Uncertainty:
Geopolitical tensions often lead to investor uncertainty, prompting capital flight from affected regions and stock market declines. The Israel-Iran crisis will add to this uncertainty, with investors adopting a risk-averse stance and retreating from weaker markets. Currency Fluctuations: Currency markets will also be affected; Because regional currencies like the Israeli Shekel and the Iranian Rial will face instability due to the crisis. This volatility will affect global currency markets; which will affect trade and investment flows.
- Debt and Credit Concerns:
The heightened geopolitical risk associated with the conflict has raised concerns about sovereign debt and credit ratings, particularly for countries directly involved. This added stress to an already fragile global financial system. Central banks and financial institutions implemented emergency measures to stabilize markets, but the protracted nature of the crisis and uncertainty about its resolution will unsettle economic conditions. The Israel-Iran crisis will disrupt global market supply chains; That will affect industries ranging from technology to agriculture.
- Tourism:
Along with business and trade, the travel and tourism sector may be affected due to the fear of an all-out war between Israel and Iran. Apart from this, there may be disruption of air traffic and water traffic. Several countries in the Middle East, including Iran, Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, Israel, temporarily closed their airspace during and after the Iranian attack on Israel. Airspace was later opened, but various restrictions were imposed, with many airlines considering alternative routes to avoid conflict zones.
Flight tracking websites reported the aircraft diverted from Iranian airspace to Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. But rerouting means detouring. If that happens, aviation fuel costs will increase. This means air travel will be more expensive. There is a risk that the air travel fares from Europe, West Asia and South Asia will increase.
The Iran-Israel war has a major impact on the global economy, largely focused on energy. Therefore, this war can destabilize the energy market situation in the world. So the faster this war situation calms down, the faster the global energy system will get relief.