Iran attack Israel Israeli:
Iran attack Israel Israeli: Iran has threatened to retaliate against Israel after the assassination of Ismail Haniya, head of the Palestinian independence group Hamas, in Tehran. Said Israel would be punished. According to a report by Al Arabiya, almost a month has passed since the announcement, but the Iranian push to punish Israel has not been noticed much.
After Ismail Haniya’s death, the last spokesman for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said Iran’s retaliatory strikes against Israel could take a long time. After his comments, there was renewed uncertainty about when Iran would attack Israel.
Earlier in April of this year, two of the country’s top commanders were killed in an attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, the capital of Syria. Iran quickly responded to the attack. Iran attacked Israel with more than 300 missiles and drone strikes.
Delaying Iran’s retaliation after Haniya’s assassination does not reveal anything clear about Tehran’s current strategy. Analysts have put forward several factors to explain why Iran is hesitant to attack Israel.
One of the main reasons is that Iran may hesitate for fear of a strong Israeli response and that the attack could lead to a wider conflict if the United States becomes directly involved.
Second, Iran’s current leadership prioritizes maintaining control over Iranian power above all else. Arash Azizi, a visiting fellow at the Boston University Frederick S. Party Center for the Study of the Long-Range Future, said that many in Iran’s political class, including local figures, have warned the country’s leadership about the consequences of an all-out war. Which can be truly destructive for the country and fatal for the government.
A US military presence near Iran’s maritime borders may also be forcing Tehran to refrain from attacking Israel. According to the Pentagon, the U.S. Department of Defense, the growing U.S. presence in the region has chilled Iran’s leaders.
Iran has vehemently avoided getting into a war with the US in the past. One proof of this is the killing of Qasem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Al Quds Force, in 2020, when the United States did not react strongly to Iran. Even with Qasem Soleimani’s massive influence, Iran refrained from engaging in conflict with the United States.
Al Arabiya reports that another reason for Iran’s refraining from taking an aggressive stance against Israel may be the cease-fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Iran and China are reluctant to take any decision that could derail these talks. In addition, Iran does not want to be considered guilty by the international community.
Iran is also cautious about the US presidential election to be held in November. The authorities in Tehran do not want to do anything that could hasten Donald Trump’s second term as president of the United States. Because they believe that the current Biden administration will show a much more aggressive attitude than Donald Trump, who is flexible on Iran. Evidence of this has been found in the recent past.
Saeed Golkar, associate professor of political science at the University of Tennessee and senior adviser to United Against Nuclear Iran, said a war with Israel would drag the United States into a major conflict that could destroy Kamala Harris’s chances of being elected in the November election. The Islamic Republic of Iran will do whatever it takes to prevent Trump from being re-elected.
However, despite the presence of so many conditions or reasons, Iran may be forced to retaliate against Israel. The matter has become a question of prestige for Iran, especially after the assassination of a top allied leader on its soil.
Even last April, Iran retaliated against Israel. Iran will want to retaliate even if such an attack is carried out. However, missiles and drones may not be used directly like the attacks that Iran has carried out in Israel in April this year.
Finally, Iran is still somewhat confused. Iran is particularly concerned about how to deter Israeli aggression while avoiding a full-scale war. Currently, Iran’s leadership is going through a difficult situation, especially how to bridge the gap between the expectations of the country’s supporters and the reality.